The Rufiji River, which drains into Tanzania’s south-east coast, experienced a major wave of flooding in April 2024. The flooding caused tragic loss of life and affected at least 88,000 individuals. More than 28,000 hectares of crops were damaged.
There has been much debate in Tanzania on the causes of this disaster, particularly the presumed role of the new Julius Nyerere Dam, which is built on the river. Barnaby Dye has studied the development and funding of dams, including those in Tanzania. He provides some insights into the potential risks and solutions.
What are the large dams in Tanzania and what were they built for?
Tanzania has a long history of dam building, from its early independence days in 1961. The country’s founding leader, Julius Nyerere, inaugurated the small Nyumba Ya Mungu hydroelectric plant in 1968. A steady programme of large dams followed. These included the dual Kidatu and Mtera dams completed between 1975 and 1988. The New Pangani Falls dam and Kihansi were completed in the mid to late 1990s.
The primary goal for all these dams was hydropower, which has historically dominated Tanzania’s electricity mix.
The 20th century also saw the dominance of an ideology trumpeting the power of these dams – and their electricity – to transform Tanzania’s economy into an industrialised society. The long-planned Stiegler’s Gorge Dam, in particular, which was recently renamed the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, captured these development dreams. They were part of Nyerere’s socialist vision for creating a so-called modern developed country.
However, a reliance on hydropower in the 21st century has plunged the country into repeated power cuts during droughts. Hydropower is also being questioned, given long build times, and environmental and social costs. There was a fall in dam building as the government prioritised quicker-win, and sometimes deeply corrupt, gas and oil plants.
This changed with the arrival of President John Magufuli (2015-2021), who decided that the Julius Nyerere 2.1 gigawatt megadam was the answer to Tanzania’s development and electricity needs. He refocused stagnant planning efforts and construction started in 2018.
Six years later, the dam is nearing completion, with the main dam wall and reservoir in place and first turbines operational.
Do any of these dams pose particular risks in the event of flooding?
Dams can prevent floods, storing water in large reservoirs and slowly releasing it downstream. But they can also make flooding worse, or trigger a disaster.
Dam collapses caused by poor maintenance, incorrect operation, or inadequate planning and construction quality are among the worst human-made disasters. The 2019 collapse of a Brazilian dam, for example, killed at least 250 people. China’s 1975 dam disaster killed 240,000 people after heavy rainfall overwhelmed a series of dam walls.
None of Tanzania’s dams have been built primarily for flood control. Most 20th Century dams operate more like run-of-river projects, meaning that they are built to constantly produce electricity and not to store significant volumes of water from the rainy season for drier spells. Therefore, with the exception of Mtera Dam, Tanzania has not historically had the storage reservoirs to prevent significant flooding.
The Julius Nyerere Dam could be different given its large reservoir. However, some media reports blamed the Julius Nyerere Dam for the 2024 floods,, as the new hydropower project sits directly upstream of the area that flooded in April. Other reports argued that it prevented a worse flood. It’s difficult to judge as little has been released about the current design and operation of the nearly-complete dam.
Earlier versions of the design envisaged a large storage dam. So it’s plausible that the dam is benign, as the government has claimed. Official spokespeople insisted that it prevented flooding in 2023 when the reservoir was being filled.
Without the necessary information, though, it’s impossible to reject arguments that the dam caused the destructive flooding. Tanzania has endured painful and constant power cuts. Thus, it is plausible that the government sought to maximise electricity generation from the new dam. Such a strategy would involve keeping the reservoir at its highest level over time. This could leave authorities ill prepared to store water from abnormally heavy rains like those experienced across east Africa in 2024.
As the reservoir approached dangerously high levels, dam operators would need to suddenly release as much water as possible to prevent it from overflowing and breaking the dam wall. Such actions, while preventing a worse dam collapse, would have caused severe flooding. Indeed, officials from the state-owned electricity utility reportedly stated that a release from the Julius Nyerere Dam caused April’s floods.
Thus, Tanzania’s dams, like others around the world, constitute a flood risk whose likelihood depends on how the dams are planned and operated.
What are some solutions to the flood risk?
Climate change models predict increased rainfall variability, and therefore more floods, in Tanzania’s future. Given the inherent risk of emergency dam releases in the short term, the government needs an effective early warning system to alert those downstream when water releases occur. Such a system seems to have failed this year.
Longer-term solutions should focus on slowing water and addressing the ultimate cause of flooding: having too much water in too short a time.
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The government’s proposal involves construction of more dams. In my view, this approach to flood control seems shortsighted. These dams could worsen, rather than solve, extreme floods. And planned dams are designed only for hydropower – they leave little storage for flood prevention.
New dams on the Rufiji River come with major trade-offs as they pose a risk for other economic mainstays:
Natural infrastructure that slows water movement, like wetland or groundwater capture, holds the best potential. It is a cheaper, more effective solution, with economic opportunities for livelihood diversification. Equally, adaptation may hold the key, as researchers Stéphanie Duvail, Olivier Hamerlynck and colleagues found in thier participatory study. Changing housing and agriculture to cope with periodic flooding would allow Tanzania to enjoy the economic benefits that natural river floods bring.
Barnaby Joseph Dye, Lecturer, University of York
Source: allafrica.com
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Air Tanzania Banned From EU Airspace Due to Safety Concerns
Several airports have since locked Air Tanzania, dealing a severe blow to the Tanzanian national carrier that must now work overtime to regain its certification or go the wet lease way
The European Commission has announced the inclusion of Air Tanzania on the EU Air Safety List, effectively banning the airline from operating in European airspace.
The decision, made public on December 16, 2024, is based on safety concerns identified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which also led to the denial of Air Tanzania’s application for a Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisation.
The Commission did not go into the specifics of the safety infringement but industry experts suggest it is possible that the airline could have flown its Airbus A220 well past its scheduled major checks, thus violating the airworthiness directives.
“The decision to include Air Tanzania in the EU Air Safety List underscores our unwavering commitment to ensuring the highest safety standards for passengers in Europe and worldwide,” said Apostolos Tzitzikostas, EU Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism.
“We strongly urge Air Tanzania to take swift and decisive action to address these safety issues. I have offered the Commission’s assistance to the Tanzanian authorities in enhancing Air Tanzania’s safety performance and achieving full compliance with international aviation standards.”
Air Tanzania has a mixed fleet of modern aircraft types including Boeing 787s, 737 Max jets, and Airbus A220s.
It has been flying the B787 Dreamliner to European destinations like Frankfurt in Germany and Athens in Greece and was looking to add London to its growing list with the A220.
But the ban not only scuppers the London dream but also has seen immediate ripple effect, with several airports – including regional like Kigali and continental – locking out Air Tanzania.
Tanzania operates KLM alongside the national carrier.
The European Commission said Air Tanzania may be permitted to exercise traffic rights by using wet-leased aircraft of an air carrier which is not subject to an operating ban, provided that the relevant safety standards are complied with.
A wet lease is where an airline pays to use an aircraft with a crew, fuel, and insurance all provided by the leasing company at a fee.
Two more to the list
The EU Air Safety List, maintained to ensure passenger safety, is updated periodically based on recommendations from the EU Air Safety Committee.
The latest revision, which followed a meeting of aviation safety experts in Brussels from November 19 to 21, 2024, now includes 129 airlines.
Of these, 100 are certified in 15 states where aviation oversight is deemed insufficient, and 29 are individual airlines with significant safety deficiencies.
Alongside Air Tanzania, other banned carriers include Air Zimbabwe (Zimbabwe), Avior Airlines (Venezuela), and Iran Aseman Airlines (Iran).
Commenting on the broader implications of the list, Tzitzikostas stated, “Our priority remains the safety of every traveler who relies on air transport. We urge all affected airlines to take these bans seriously and work collaboratively with international bodies to resolve the identified issues.”
In a positive development, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has been cleared to resume operations in the EU following a four-year suspension. The ban, which began in 2020, was lifted after substantial improvements in safety performance and oversight by PIA and the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA).
“Since the TCO Authorisation was suspended, PIA and PCAA have made remarkable progress in enhancing safety standards,” noted Tzitzikostas. “This demonstrates that safety issues can be resolved through determination and cooperation.”
Another Pakistani airline, Airblue Limited, has also received EASA’s TCO authorisation.
Decisions to include or exclude airlines from the EU Air Safety List are based on rigorous evaluations of international safety standards, particularly those established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
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The process involves thorough review and consultation among EU Member State aviation safety experts, with oversight from the European Commission and support from EASA.
“Where an airline currently on the list believes it complies with the required safety standards, it can request a reassessment,” explained Tzitzikostas. “Our goal is not to penalize but to ensure safety compliance globally.”
Airlines listed on the EU Air Safety List face significant challenges to their international operations, as the bans highlight shortcomings in safety oversight by their home regulatory authorities.
For Air Tanzania, this inclusion signals an urgent need for reform within Tanzania’s aviation sector to address these deficiencies and align with global standards.
The path forward will require immediate and sustained efforts to rectify safety concerns and regain access to one of the world’s most critical aviation markets.
Source: allafrica.com
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