It’s been three years since the death of Tanzania’s president John Magufuli and the rise to power of current president Samia Suluhu Hassan.
Magufuli was Tanzania’s fifth president. He came to power in 2015 and was re-elected in 2020 in a poll that was marred by controversy.
Magufuli brought lasting changes to Tanzania’s political landscape during his six-year tenure. His approach sparked differing opinions, both within the country and on the international stage.
Inside the country he was loved and loathed almost in equal measure.
To his detractors, his administration was marked by a decline in political and civic space and by international isolation. Early in his presidency, Magufuli’s no-nonsense approach won praise across the globe. He publicly reprimanded government officials, demanding fiscal discipline and accountability.
Over time, however, his critics saw his style as bordering on authoritarianism. He banned political rallies, stifled the media, promised to annihilate the opposition, and banned the return to school of teenage mothers.
His loyal supporters saw him as an anti-imperialist development icon. They backed him as a benevolent dictator – a leader who wields absolute power but uses it to benefit the populace.
The anniversary of his death in mid-March presented an opportunity to reflect on his legacy and the character of the political debates leading up to the 2025 elections in Tanzania.
In the three years since Samia Suluhu Hassan took over the presidency following his death, she has reversed most of the retrogressive policies introduced by Magufuli. She has also restructured both the party and the government.
As an international relations academic who has researched party politics and democratisation of Tanzania for more than 10 years, I believe these two sets of changes will be felt in the election.
Samia’s reversal of repressive measures will give impetus to the opposition. And the changes she has made to the ruling party will entrench its electoral dominance in 2025. She consolidated her base and then won back some of the Magufuli loyalists. These calculated steps towards consolidating power will be pivotal in the 2025 elections.
Reforms
Samia has introduced reforms that have opened up the political and civic spaces. She set up a task force on political reforms that recommended restructuring of the electoral process. Election laws have been reviewed and public rallies are allowed after they were banned in 2016.
The effect has been to boost the opposition’s chances of gaining ground against the ruling party. These reforms have benefited the two leading opposition parties. Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) and ACT-Wazalendo can now organise public rallies and push for additional reforms, including a new constitution. In the last (2020) polls, the opposition was crippled by state repression.
With the lifting of the ban on political rallies, the opposition has been holding countrywide campaigns. The opposition is now able to hold demonstrations with police protection, something that was unthinkable three years ago.
Despite this, the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party will continue to have an advantage. This is due to Samia’s failure to implement some electoral reforms as recommended by the task force. Three electoral reform bills – the National Electoral Commission Bill 2023, the Political Parties Affairs Laws (Amendment) Bill 2023 and the Presidential, Parliamentary and Local Government Elections Bill 2023 – were passed by parliament but did not reflect any meaningful change.
Ruling party factions
Samia’s ascendancy to the presidency was not automatic. While the country’s constitution states that the vice-president assumes office upon the death of a president, there were factions within the ruling party that wanted to prevent her from taking over. She came into power with limited political capital both within her party and outside.
She made this known soon after being sworn in as president. Recently, the ex-army chief Venance Mabeyo provided additional insights into the transition following Magufuli’s death. He said the transition was managed by security officials (chief of defence forces, director general of intelligence services and inspector general of police) who later briefed the prime minister. Astonishingly, the vice-president was the last senior government official to be briefed about the death of the president.
But upon taking office, she built a solid base of trusted party insiders. This she did with the help of former president Jakaya Kikwete. She immediately sacked some of the so-called Magufuli loyalists. They included two trusted confidants and close advisors of Magufuli, chief secretary Bashiru Ally and minister of foreign affairs Palamagamba Kabudi.
She also brought people who had been sidelined by Mafuguli back on board. These included January Makamba, a presidential aspirant in 2015; Nape Nnauye, a former party secretary for ideology and publicity; and Abdulrahman Kinana, the party’s secretary general.
Makamba and Nnauye were reinstated to the cabinet and Kinana returned as the mainland vice-chairman of the party. The three were the leading campaigners in the election of Magufuli before falling out.
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In recent months, Samia has brought back some trusted former allies of Magufuli in what is seen by many in Tanzania as an attempt to win back support from his camp. In August 2023, she appointed Doto Biteko, a key ally of Magufuli, as deputy prime minister: a new position that is not in the constitution. Biteko also assumed the role of energy minister.
Samia also brought back Paul Makonda, former Dar es Salaam regional commissioner, as the ideology and publicity secretary of the ruling party. Makonda’s return is seen as an attempt to crack down on dissent within and beyond the ruling party. Bringing Biteko and Makonda on board could shore up party support from the vote-rich Lake zone, home to the Sukuma, Magufuli’s ethnic group.
Samia’s departure from her predecessor’s policies, coupled with her strategic political manoeuvres, has won her support within her party and among the broader public. Nonetheless, she could still face resistance from hard line factions within her party who may seek to undermine her in the 2025 general elections.
Nicodemus Minde, Adjunct Lecturer, United States International University
Source: allafrica.com
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Air Tanzania Banned From EU Airspace Due to Safety Concerns
Several airports have since locked Air Tanzania, dealing a severe blow to the Tanzanian national carrier that must now work overtime to regain its certification or go the wet lease way
The European Commission has announced the inclusion of Air Tanzania on the EU Air Safety List, effectively banning the airline from operating in European airspace.
The decision, made public on December 16, 2024, is based on safety concerns identified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which also led to the denial of Air Tanzania’s application for a Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisation.
The Commission did not go into the specifics of the safety infringement but industry experts suggest it is possible that the airline could have flown its Airbus A220 well past its scheduled major checks, thus violating the airworthiness directives.
“The decision to include Air Tanzania in the EU Air Safety List underscores our unwavering commitment to ensuring the highest safety standards for passengers in Europe and worldwide,” said Apostolos Tzitzikostas, EU Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism.
“We strongly urge Air Tanzania to take swift and decisive action to address these safety issues. I have offered the Commission’s assistance to the Tanzanian authorities in enhancing Air Tanzania’s safety performance and achieving full compliance with international aviation standards.”
Air Tanzania has a mixed fleet of modern aircraft types including Boeing 787s, 737 Max jets, and Airbus A220s.
It has been flying the B787 Dreamliner to European destinations like Frankfurt in Germany and Athens in Greece and was looking to add London to its growing list with the A220.
But the ban not only scuppers the London dream but also has seen immediate ripple effect, with several airports – including regional like Kigali and continental – locking out Air Tanzania.
Tanzania operates KLM alongside the national carrier.
The European Commission said Air Tanzania may be permitted to exercise traffic rights by using wet-leased aircraft of an air carrier which is not subject to an operating ban, provided that the relevant safety standards are complied with.
A wet lease is where an airline pays to use an aircraft with a crew, fuel, and insurance all provided by the leasing company at a fee.
Two more to the list
The EU Air Safety List, maintained to ensure passenger safety, is updated periodically based on recommendations from the EU Air Safety Committee.
The latest revision, which followed a meeting of aviation safety experts in Brussels from November 19 to 21, 2024, now includes 129 airlines.
Of these, 100 are certified in 15 states where aviation oversight is deemed insufficient, and 29 are individual airlines with significant safety deficiencies.
Alongside Air Tanzania, other banned carriers include Air Zimbabwe (Zimbabwe), Avior Airlines (Venezuela), and Iran Aseman Airlines (Iran).
Commenting on the broader implications of the list, Tzitzikostas stated, “Our priority remains the safety of every traveler who relies on air transport. We urge all affected airlines to take these bans seriously and work collaboratively with international bodies to resolve the identified issues.”
In a positive development, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has been cleared to resume operations in the EU following a four-year suspension. The ban, which began in 2020, was lifted after substantial improvements in safety performance and oversight by PIA and the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA).
“Since the TCO Authorisation was suspended, PIA and PCAA have made remarkable progress in enhancing safety standards,” noted Tzitzikostas. “This demonstrates that safety issues can be resolved through determination and cooperation.”
Another Pakistani airline, Airblue Limited, has also received EASA’s TCO authorisation.
Decisions to include or exclude airlines from the EU Air Safety List are based on rigorous evaluations of international safety standards, particularly those established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
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The process involves thorough review and consultation among EU Member State aviation safety experts, with oversight from the European Commission and support from EASA.
“Where an airline currently on the list believes it complies with the required safety standards, it can request a reassessment,” explained Tzitzikostas. “Our goal is not to penalize but to ensure safety compliance globally.”
Airlines listed on the EU Air Safety List face significant challenges to their international operations, as the bans highlight shortcomings in safety oversight by their home regulatory authorities.
For Air Tanzania, this inclusion signals an urgent need for reform within Tanzania’s aviation sector to address these deficiencies and align with global standards.
The path forward will require immediate and sustained efforts to rectify safety concerns and regain access to one of the world’s most critical aviation markets.
Source: allafrica.com
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