The Horn of Africa would experience below-average rainfall during the October-December season, potentially leading to drought conditions, international agencies warned on Friday.
The agencies, which include the United Nations World Food Programme, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and the Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) of the East African bloc of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, said in an alert that climate models have predicted a transition to La Nina conditions during the second half of 2024, which could bring below-average rainfall.
“The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya,” the institutions said in an alert issued in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya.
Other countries to be affected are Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, where the second rain season happens in October-December.
Read: EA braces for hunger as floods destroy farms
The first rain season runs from March to May.
The agencies noted that the below-average rains would lead to “crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition.”
They called on humanitarian partners to engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of preparedness activities, and the identification of anticipatory actions, to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.
The Horn of Africa has experienced severe drought events in the past, including in 2010/2011, 2016/2017, and 2020/2023, which were characterised by consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, the ICPAC said.
The droughts, exacerbated by higher-than-usual temperatures, have led to severe pasture and water shortages, livestock fatalities, failed cropping seasons, population displacements, rising food prices, worsening human health, and widespread food insecurity and malnutrition among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities.
According to the WFP, some 20.4 million people across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, are currently facing high levels of food insecurity and in need of urgent assistance.
Read: Horn of Africa nations to face heatwaves
Acute malnutrition continues to be a major source of concern with estimates indicating that more than 6.2 million children below five years will suffer from acute malnutrition in 2024 in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, out of which 1.7 million will suffer from severe acute malnutrition, added the UN agency.
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Tanzania Confirms Second Marburg Outbreak After WHO Chief Visit
Dar es Salaam — Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has declared an outbreak of Marburg virus, confirming a single case in the northwestern region of Kagera after a meeting with WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The confirmation follows days of speculation about a possible outbreak in the region, after the WHO reported a number of deaths suspected to be linked to the highly infectious disease.
While Tanzania’s Ministry of Health declared last week that all suspected cases had tested negative for Marburg, the WHO called for additional testing at international reference laboratories.
“We never know when an outbreak might occur in a neighbouring nation. So we ensure infection prevention control assessments at every point of care as routine as a morning greeting at our workplaces.”Amelia Clemence, public health researcher
Subsequent laboratory tests conducted at Kagera’s Kabaile Mobile Laboratory and confirmed in Dar es Salaam identified one positive case, while 25 other suspected cases tested negative, the president told a press conference in Dodoma, in the east of the country today (Monday).
“The epicentre has now shifted to Biharamulo district of Kagera,” she told the press conference, distinguishing this outbreak from the previous one centred in Bukoba district.
Tedros said the WHO would release US$3 million from its emergencies contingency fund to support efforts to contain the outbreak.
Health authorities stepped up surveillance and deployed emergency response teams after the WHO raised the alarm about nine suspected cases in the region, including eight deaths.
The suspected cases displayed symptoms consistent with Marburg infection, including headache, high fever, diarrhoea, and haemorrhagic complications, according to the WHO’s alert to member countries on 14 January. The organisation noted a case fatality rate of 89 per cent among the suspected cases.
“We appreciate the swift attention accorded by the WHO,” Hassan said.
She said her administration immediately investigated the WHO’s alert.
“The government took several measures, including the investigation of suspected individuals and the deployment of emergency response teams,” she added.
Cross-border transmission
The emergence of this case in a region that experienced Tanzania’s first-ever Marburg outbreak in March 2023 has raised concerns about cross-border transmission, particularly following Rwanda’s recent outbreak that infected 66 people and killed 15 before being declared over in December 2024.
The situation is particularly critical given Kagera’s position as a transport hub connecting four East African nations.
Amelia Clemence, a public health researcher working in the region, says constant vigilance is required.
“We never know when an outbreak might occur in a neighbouring nation. So we ensure infection prevention control assessments at every point of care as routine as a morning greeting at our workplaces.”
The Kagera region’s ecosystem, home to fruit bats that serve as natural reservoirs for the Marburg virus, adds another layer of complexity to disease surveillance efforts.
The virus, closely related to Ebola, spreads through contact with bodily fluids and can cause severe haemorrhagic fever.
Transparency urged
Elizabeth Sanga, shadow minister of health for Tanzania’s ACT Wazalendo opposition party, says greater transparency would help guide public health measures.
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“This could have helped to guide those who are traveling to the affected region to be more vigilant and prevent the risk of further spread,” she said.
WHO regional director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti says early notification of investigation outcomes is important.
“We stand ready to support the government in its efforts to investigate and ensure that measures are in place for an effective and rapid response,” she said, noting that existing national capacities built from previous health emergencies could be quickly mobilised.
The situation coincides with leadership changes in Tanzania’s Ministry of Health, with both the chief medical officer and permanent secretary being replaced.
This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Sub-Saharan Africa English desk.
Source: allafrica.com
