By AFP
Two years after war broke out in northern Ethiopia between federal forces and Tigrayan rebels, the country remains in deep crisis, with its once-vibrant economy in ruins and a humanitarian disaster roiling Tigray.
UN chief Antonio Guterres has hailed a breakthrough agreement announced Wednesday between the federal government and Tigrayan regional authorities to cease hostilities as “a welcome first step” but crucial details remain unclear, with no mention of Eritrea, a key player in the conflict.
‘Half a million dead’
The war’s toll is unknown, but the US envoy to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, recently said that the devastation and deaths “rival what we’re seeing in Ukraine”.
“Over two years of conflict, as many as half a million… people have died, and the United States is deeply concerned about the potential for further mass atrocities.”
The war erupted on November 4, 2020, following tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades until the election of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018.
The violence has drawn in regional militias from Amhara and Afar in northern Ethiopia as well as forces from Eritrea, whose leader Isaias Afwerki has a longstanding enmity with the TPLF.
Severe food, medicine shortages
Tigray has faced severe shortages of food and medicines and limited access to electricity, banking and communications, with UN warnings that hundreds of thousands of people were on the brink of famine.
UN investigators have accused Abiy’s government of crimes against humanity in Tigray, including the use of starvation as a weapon — claims rejected by the authorities.
The region of six million people has been largely closed off to the outside world for well over a year, making it very difficult to assess conditions on the ground.
“We will never know the real toll,” said Patrick Ferras, a geopolitical researcher and president of Strategies Africaines, who told AFP that at least 300,000 people had likely lost their lives in the conflict.
A military source who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity said it was impossible to count the fighters involved but analysts believe the number extends into several hundred thousand.
Trucks, which are part of a WFP convoy, heading to Tigray seen in the village of Erebti, Ethiopia on June 09, 2022. Two years after war broke out in northern Ethiopia between federal forces and Tigrayan rebels, the country remains in deep crisis. PHOTO | EDUARDO SOTERAS | AFP
A fractured country
The war has exposed underlying fissures within Africa’s second most populous nation, with both sides accused of abuses against civilians based on their ethnicity.
A mosaic of more than 80 ethno-linguistic communities, Ethiopia has long struggled to manage the diversity within its borders, with its most populated region Oromia witnessing constant clashes even as the war in Tigray dominates headlines.
Abiy, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for engineering a rapprochement with Eritrea, now presides over a country fractured along ethnic lines.
The non-profit ACLED, which focuses on conflict, has pointed to “rising levels of violence in many areas throughout Ethiopia”, singling out the regions of Oromia, Gambella and Benishangul-Gumuz.
With federal forces focused on northern Ethiopia, the risk of violence elsewhere flaring into prolonged instability poses yet another threat to the country of 120 million people.
An economy in ruins
When Abiy took the reins in 2018, Ethiopia’s economy was growing at breakneck speed, expanding annually by nearly 10 per cent from 2010 onwards.
Since then, the economy has encountered several roadblocks, including the war and the Covid pandemic, to name two.
This year, GDP is projected to grow less than four per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“The economic situation is disastrous,” said Ferras.
Annual inflation, which already averaged 13.5 per cent between 2010 and 2018, exploded to around 33 per cent this year, driven by rising food prices.
“This is largely due to the setbacks of Ethiopian agriculture,” a diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity, referring to a locust invasion, flooding and drought.
Ukraine war effects
The situation will likely worsen as the war in Ukraine drags on, with the Ethiopian currency’s value plummeting against the US dollar and the import-dependent nation’s foreign exchange reserves drying up.
The IMF estimates that Ethiopia only has enough reserves to pay for about three weeks of imports as it struggles with a shortfall in development aid given by foreign nations.
“Since the beginning of the conflict, Ethiopia has lost half of its official development assistance,” the diplomat said.
Faint hopes for peace
Even as peace talks opened in South Africa last week, observers were pessimistic, with fighting showing no signs of letting up after a resumption of combat in August shattered a five-month truce.
In recent weeks, federal forces — backed by Eritrean soldiers — captured a string of towns in Tigray, piling pressure on the TPLF.
Wednesday’s surprise announcement of a deal to end hostilities was greeted with cautious hope, with the United States calling it an “important step towards peace”.
But there are “too many unknowns” surrounding the agreement, said Benjamin Petrini, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington.
It is unclear how the implementation of the deal will be monitored and crucially, no mention has been made of a withdrawal by Eritrean troops, who have been accused of gruesome abuses against Tigrayan civilians.
“If someone wants to be sceptical you would say that solving it all in eight days of negotiations is not a serious effort,” Petrini told AFP.
“You may have only scratched the surface.”
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Tanzania Confirms Second Marburg Outbreak After WHO Chief Visit
Dar es Salaam — Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan has declared an outbreak of Marburg virus, confirming a single case in the northwestern region of Kagera after a meeting with WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The confirmation follows days of speculation about a possible outbreak in the region, after the WHO reported a number of deaths suspected to be linked to the highly infectious disease.
While Tanzania’s Ministry of Health declared last week that all suspected cases had tested negative for Marburg, the WHO called for additional testing at international reference laboratories.
“We never know when an outbreak might occur in a neighbouring nation. So we ensure infection prevention control assessments at every point of care as routine as a morning greeting at our workplaces.”Amelia Clemence, public health researcher
Subsequent laboratory tests conducted at Kagera’s Kabaile Mobile Laboratory and confirmed in Dar es Salaam identified one positive case, while 25 other suspected cases tested negative, the president told a press conference in Dodoma, in the east of the country today (Monday).
“The epicentre has now shifted to Biharamulo district of Kagera,” she told the press conference, distinguishing this outbreak from the previous one centred in Bukoba district.
Tedros said the WHO would release US$3 million from its emergencies contingency fund to support efforts to contain the outbreak.
Health authorities stepped up surveillance and deployed emergency response teams after the WHO raised the alarm about nine suspected cases in the region, including eight deaths.
The suspected cases displayed symptoms consistent with Marburg infection, including headache, high fever, diarrhoea, and haemorrhagic complications, according to the WHO’s alert to member countries on 14 January. The organisation noted a case fatality rate of 89 per cent among the suspected cases.
“We appreciate the swift attention accorded by the WHO,” Hassan said.
She said her administration immediately investigated the WHO’s alert.
“The government took several measures, including the investigation of suspected individuals and the deployment of emergency response teams,” she added.
Cross-border transmission
The emergence of this case in a region that experienced Tanzania’s first-ever Marburg outbreak in March 2023 has raised concerns about cross-border transmission, particularly following Rwanda’s recent outbreak that infected 66 people and killed 15 before being declared over in December 2024.
The situation is particularly critical given Kagera’s position as a transport hub connecting four East African nations.
Amelia Clemence, a public health researcher working in the region, says constant vigilance is required.
“We never know when an outbreak might occur in a neighbouring nation. So we ensure infection prevention control assessments at every point of care as routine as a morning greeting at our workplaces.”
The Kagera region’s ecosystem, home to fruit bats that serve as natural reservoirs for the Marburg virus, adds another layer of complexity to disease surveillance efforts.
The virus, closely related to Ebola, spreads through contact with bodily fluids and can cause severe haemorrhagic fever.
Transparency urged
Elizabeth Sanga, shadow minister of health for Tanzania’s ACT Wazalendo opposition party, says greater transparency would help guide public health measures.
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“This could have helped to guide those who are traveling to the affected region to be more vigilant and prevent the risk of further spread,” she said.
WHO regional director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti says early notification of investigation outcomes is important.
“We stand ready to support the government in its efforts to investigate and ensure that measures are in place for an effective and rapid response,” she said, noting that existing national capacities built from previous health emergencies could be quickly mobilised.
The situation coincides with leadership changes in Tanzania’s Ministry of Health, with both the chief medical officer and permanent secretary being replaced.
This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Sub-Saharan Africa English desk.
Source: allafrica.com
