Africa’s coffee future: Ministers push for 20 percent global share by 2030

Dar es Salaam. African coffee-producing nations have set an ambitious target to increase the continent’s share of global coffee production to 20 percent by 2030.

This key resolution was among the top priorities at the 3rd G25 African Coffee Summit going on here, where ministers and experts deliberated on strategies to rejuvenate the sector and ensure Africans benefit from the full coffee value chain.

Currently, Africa accounts for only 11 percent of global coffee production—a sharp decline from 25 percent in the 1960s.

While global coffee demand continues to rise, the continent’s output has struggled due to aging farmers, climate change, pests and limited value addition.

Tanzania’s Minister for Agriculture, Mr Hussein Bashe, who led discussions alongside over 20 senior government officials from coffee-producing nations on the first day of the summit, stressed the urgent need for a paradigm shift.

“It’s crazy that we export coffee worth $3 billion but import coffee products worth $50 billion. We must change from being raw material exporters to value addition and finished goods producers,” he said.

He went on: “We need to set clear targets and work together. If we increase production to 20 percent of global coffee output by 2030, Africa will finally reclaim its rightful place in the global coffee trade,” he said.

Mr Bashe emphasised that boosting production and local processing would create jobs, strengthen intra-African trade, and drive economic growth.

“We should target increasing our intra-African coffee trade from the current 15 percent to at least 50 percent,” he added.

One of the major discussions at the summit centred on addressing low productivity, which has hindered Africa’s competitiveness in the global coffee market.

Chairman of the Inter-African Coffee Organisation (IACO) and Burundi’s Minister of Agriculture, Prosper Dodiko, expressed concern over the industry’s decline.

“In the 1960s, we produced a quarter of the world’s coffee (25 percent). Now, we are at just 11 percent. What went wrong?” he asked.

According to Dodiko, coffee remains the livelihood for 60 million people in Africa. However, multiple challenges, including diseases, low yields, and aging farmers, have slowed growth.

“We cannot talk about unemployment while failing to tap into coffee’s potential. We need to make it attractive to our youth,” he added.

Tanzania’s approach to reviving coffee

Tanzania is among the countries taking proactive steps to address these challenges.

Minister Bashe outlined several initiatives aimed at transforming the sector.

The government is investing in strengthening coffee research institutions to combat pests, diseases, and climate-related threats.

It has also introduced coffee seedlings and fertilizer subsidies to support smallholder farmers, ensuring they can improve productivity and maintain high-quality yields.

A significant initiative is the Build Better Tomorrow (BBT) programme, which provides free land and training to young agripreneurs.

This initiative is designed to attract youth into coffee farming, addressing the challenge of an aging farmer population.

Additionally, the government is pushing for increased domestic coffee consumption, with a target of raising local consumption from 7 percent to 15 percent by 2030.

This shift will create a more sustainable coffee economy that is not solely reliant on exports.

To enhance value addition, Tanzania is revamping Tanzania Instant Coffee Company (TANICA) and empowering coffee cooperatives.

These efforts are expected to boost local coffee processing and help the country capture a larger share of the global market.

“We must respond to the growing global preference for African coffee. We need to unlock new markets within the continent while strengthening our global footprint,” Bashe said.

Unlocking opportunities for the youth

A key theme at the summit was the role of young people in coffee production.

With an aging farmer population, leaders emphasised the need to involve youth through modern agribusiness models.

IACO’s Secretary-General, Solomon Rutega, highlighted initiatives to support climate adaptation and productivity improvements.

“Through the Africa Coffee Research Network, we are advocating investment in disease-resistant coffee varieties and better farming technologies,” he noted.

Mr Rutega also stressed the importance of a circular economy in coffee production, where by-products are utilised to create additional income streams.

“This approach will not only reduce waste but also create job opportunities in processing and manufacturing,” he explained.

Adding to this perspective, an agribusiness expert Dr Emmanuel Magesa, emphasised the need for financial support mechanisms for smallholder farmers.

“Access to credit and affordable financing is still a major challenge for coffee farmers in Africa. Without proper financial backing, increasing productivity remains difficult,” he noted.

Similarly, a coffee market analyst, Ms Fatuma Juma, urged African nations to focus on branding and marketing their coffee more effectively.

“We need to tell the story of African coffee—its unique flavours, rich heritage, and premium quality. This is what global consumers are looking for,” she said.

A representative from the African Union Commission, Rebecca Teng’o, affirmed that coffee would soon be recognised as a strategic commodity within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

“Without coffee being prioritised as a key trade commodity, the AfCFTA may not achieve its full potential,” she said.

Ms Teng’o commended the political commitment shown by ministers at the summit, noting that their resolutions would set the stage for further deliberations by heads of state.

As African heads of state prepare to finalise key resolutions on February 22, expectations are high that concrete policy actions will emerge from the summit.